As 2026 begins, XRP is positioned for potential worth appreciation. This outlook is supported by the launch of spot exchange-traded funds, the rollout of a brand new stablecoin, and increasing tokenization capabilities on its ledger.
That upside, nevertheless, isn’t assured. XRP’s efficiency will rely upon sustained regulatory readability within the US and whether or not investor demand for XRP-linked merchandise stays robust sufficient to outweigh rising competitors.
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How XRP ETFs Reshaped Demand
A current report by asset supervisor 21Shares predicted that XRP has a 30% likelihood of reaching $2.69 in 2026, a situation it described because the bull case.
This prediction hinged on a number of profitable milestones that XRP and, extra typically, Ripple, have achieved in 2025.
Solely after that authorized readability was established did US XRP spot ETFs obtain SEC approval.
XRP amassed $1.3 billion following its spot ETF launch. Supply: 21Shares.
In accordance with Matt Mena, a crypto researcher at 21Shares, this launch essentially rewrote the asset’s demand profile. Inside a month of launching, these ETFs amassed over $1.3 billion in belongings underneath administration.
“A key fact that many do not realize is that the XRP ETFs set a world-record, they hold the record for the largest consecutive period of net inflows regardless of asset class, meaning beating out stocks, commodities, bonds, and even Bitcoin – with over 50-days of consecutive net inflows,” Mena advised BeInCrypto, including, “This is an insane fact and shows just how durable the XRP ETF inflows hae been post-launch.”
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Moreover its ETF, XRP has seen different product launches which have served as a catalyst for development.
XRPL Positions For Tokenized Finance
By 2030, 21Shares estimated that international finance will function on hybrid rails that seamlessly mix tokenized financial institution deposits, regulated fiat-backed stablecoins, and interoperable settlement layers.
In opposition to the backdrop of a tokenizing international monetary system, Mena described the XRP Ledger (XRPL) as a impartial settlement layer bridging liquidity, pace, and compliance.
Latest exercise on the community has more and more targeted on its programmable infrastructure. This allows establishments to problem and handle advanced real-world belongings (RWAs), akin to bonds and equities.
In the meantime, the efficiency of XRP’s stablecoin, RLUSD, as a liquidity car has strengthened 21Shares’ view that XRP has additional upside potential, offered adoption continues to scale.
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The report highlighted RLUSD’s speedy growth, with its market capitalization rising by roughly 1,800% from $72 million to $1.38 billion in underneath a 12 months. This development has made the stablecoin a attainable supply of collateral for giant establishments and superior monetary use circumstances.
Regardless of current features, the asset continues to face robust competitors from different established networks. Reaching the bullish situation will rely upon its capacity to take care of investor demand amid that strain.
Draw back Eventualities And Aggressive Pressures
Demand erosion for XRP ETFs, failure to draw vital RWA quantity to the XRPL, and foundering RLUSD adoption might produce totally different worth eventualities for the asset.
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Past its bullish outlook, 21Shares additionally outlined various eventualities based mostly on various market and adoption outcomes. It assigned a 50% chance to a base case wherein regulatory stability helps regular ETF inflows and gradual utility development, inserting XRP round $2.45.
In distinction, the report estimated a -16% chance of a bearish situation, with XRP falling towards $1.60. This consequence assumes stagnant adoption and capital rotating into competing belongings.
Past the danger of weakening demand, XRP should additionally take care of intensifying competitors. Networks akin to Canton and Solana, amongst others, recorded vital development over the previous 12 months.
Canton, regardless of being stay for lower than two years, has already processed trillions of {dollars} in tokenized belongings.
Nonetheless, Mena appeared largely unconcerned by this aggressive strain. Whereas acknowledging the size and momentum of rival networks, he pointed to XRP’s neighborhood as a key differentiator.
“The XRP Army is one of the largest and most outspoken communities in crypto, and I’d argue that, aside from Bitcoin and Dogecoin, it’s the token people who are not involved in crypto at all seem to recognize,” he mentioned.
For XRP, 2026 will check whether or not that momentum can translate into sturdy worth.
