RAIN value has rallied almost 40% over the previous 30 days, protecting its breakout construction intact. The value is now buying and selling slightly below $0.0104, however that stage is not the actual focus.
The energetic breakout construction factors to a brand new projected all-time excessive above $0.0110, greater than 10% increased from present ranges. Whereas upside stays open, fading momentum suggests sellers may return proper the place optimism peaks.
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New All-Time Excessive Is the Actual Goal, and Sellers Are Nonetheless Ready
The energetic breakout inverse head-and-shoulders construction initiatives a brand new all-time excessive greater than 10% above present costs, close to the $0.0110 zone. That projected stage, not the prior peak, is the place merchants are positioning. The present consolidation isn’t about profit-taking at outdated highs. It’s about whether or not RAIN can increase into its subsequent leg.
RAIN Breakout Construction: TradingView
On-chain habits helps this view. Spent cash age band exercise, which tracks what number of tokens of all holding ages are being moved on-chain and infrequently displays promoting or profit-taking, has collapsed over the previous few days. Since January 22, spent cash exercise has fallen from roughly 104.8 million to 25.4 million, a decline of almost 76% in simply three days.
That sharp drop means holders usually are not transferring tokens regardless of rising costs, exhibiting constructive short-term habits. This alerts restraint, not distribution. Individuals seem like ready for the projected all-time excessive try earlier than appearing. In easy phrases, sellers have stepped apart for now, permitting the breakout path towards $0.0110 to stay intact. However this quiet section is strictly the place dangers begin to construct.
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Why Sellers Might Return Close to the Projected ATH
The primary warning comes from the construction forming beneath the unique breakout.
As RAIN has continued increased since early January, a secondary inverse head-and-shoulders sample has began to type. Not like the sooner breakout construction, this one has a steeply up-sloping neckline and a proper shoulder that’s bigger than the top. That form makes follow-through tougher. The projected upside from this construction is modest, roughly 13–14%, and it requires robust momentum to succeed.
Lengthy-term momentum isn’t confirming that power.
Between January 6 and January 22, RAIN’s value printed the next excessive, whereas the Relative Power Index (RSI) fashioned a decrease excessive. RSI measures value momentum by evaluating latest positive aspects to losses. When value rises, however RSI weakens, it alerts fading shopping for stress, not power. This bearish RSI divergence is showing earlier than the projected ATH is reached, which is a key warning.
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The Cash Circulation Index (MFI) reinforces this concern. MFI tracks shopping for and promoting stress utilizing each value and quantity. Between January 6 and January 24, RAIN’s value moved sideways to barely increased, however MFI trended decrease. That reveals dip shopping for is weakening, though sellers are nonetheless inactive.
This explains the contradiction on the floor. Spent cash are falling as a result of sellers are ready. RSI and MFI are weakening as a result of patrons usually are not stepping in aggressively.
Rallies supported by vendor restraint relatively than purchaser growth are fragile. If and when the RAIN value lastly reaches the projected ATH zone, even average profit-taking (sellers returning) can tip the steadiness.
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RAIN Value Ranges That Matter Subsequent
RAIN can nonetheless attain a brand new all-time excessive. Nothing within the knowledge blocks that path outright.
A every day shut above $0.0110 would verify growth past the breakout projection and open room towards $0.0128, pushed largely by sentiment and momentum continuation.
Nonetheless, threat builds rapidly if the market hesitates close to that zone.
If sellers return and spent cash exercise spikes close to the projected ATH, the primary stage to observe is $0.0099, the place the latest construction begins to weaken. Beneath that, confidence within the setup fades.
A breakdown beneath $0.0082–$0.0081 would invalidate the newer right-shoulder and head construction and open the door towards $0.0068, marking a deeper corrective section.
