January has been risky to this point for Bitcoin (BTC), with the asset dealing with renewed headwinds amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and the EU following President Trump’s newest tariff bulletins.
Over the previous 24 hours, the biggest cryptocurrency has fallen almost 2.5% to $92,663. In the meantime, analysts are pointing to key bear market alerts rising in 2026.
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1. Bearish Kumo Twist Seems on Bitcoin Chart
In a latest X (previously Twitter) submit, analyst Titan of Crypto pointed to a “Kumo twist,” showing in Bitcoin’s weekly chart. For context, a Kumo twist is a formation that happens when the 2 main spans of the Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B) cross, inflicting the long run cloud to flip course.
Relying on the course of the crossover, it could sign a possible transition from bullish to bearish circumstances or from bearish to bullish. In Bitcoin’s case, the present twist is bearish.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Ichimoku Cloud. Supply: X/Titan of Crypto
earlier market cycles, Titan of Crypto famous that comparable weekly Kumo shifts preceded notable corrective phases, throughout which Bitcoin ultimately recorded drawdowns of round 67% to 70%.
“Historically, when the weekly Kumo turned bearish, BTC entered a bear market phase. That doesn’t imply an immediate drop. It simply means the overall market structure and trend dynamics have shifted. This is context, not a prediction. Based on the last three cycles,” the submit learn.
2. Bitcoin Struggles Beneath Key Limitations
As well as, Bitcoin at present trades beneath its 365-day shifting common, which sits close to $101,000. This barrier was key in the course of the 2022 bear market, when it halted restoration rallies.
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Evaluation from Coin Bureau explains that, at current, Bitcoin’s place beneath this MA alerts that the market remains to be in bearish circumstances.
Additional technical evaluation utilizing the Gaussian Channel on a five-day chart helps these worries. Crypto analyst Raven noticed that Bitcoin has misplaced the channel’s median degree.
The submit added that shedding and failing to retest this degree efficiently have traditionally marked the beginning of a extra aggressive section of bear markets.
“I believe we’re definitely heading toward the $103k zone for a retest, or possibly slightly higher for a liquidity hunt. If we manage to establish and hold support above the median, I’ll let you know. Until then, everything should be considered just a dead cat bounce,” the analyst added.
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3. Historic Drawdown Patterns Counsel Extra Declines
Bitcoin’s value historical past exhibits a recurring sample of sharp declines following cycle peaks. After topping in 2013, Bitcoin fell by about 75.9%, adopted by an 81.2% drawdown after the 2017 excessive and roughly a 74% decline after the 2021 peak.
Within the present cycle, nevertheless, the pullback has been way more modest, with losses simply above 30%, a relatively small correction by historic requirements. This means the downturn could also be in its early phases, with additional drops nonetheless potential because the cycle progresses.
4. Market Cycle Indicator Indicators Bitcoin Bear Section Nonetheless Creating
Whereas historic drawdowns give attention to value conduct after market tops, broader cycle indicators assist assess what the present circumstances align with.
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which tracks broader market phases, exhibits bearish circumstances started in October 2025. Nonetheless, it has not but moved into an excessive bear section.
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“By this metric, BTC is in bear market territory, and in every past cycle we’ve extended into the dark-blue zone, which suggests lower levels are still likely. But yeah, be my guest, call for higher! Someone needs to be exit liquidity in the end,” an analyst remarked.
5. Alternate Inflows Reveal Distribution by Main Holders
Lastly, on-chain information exhibits an increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. These inflows are dominated by mid- to large-sized holders, significantly within the 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC bands.
Elevated Bitcoin transfers to exchanges are likely to sign rising distribution exercise somewhat than long-term accumulation, as market contributors transfer belongings in preparation for potential promoting.
“Their activity tends to be more informationally significant than fragmented retail flows, as it reflects strategic decisions rather than noise. From a macro on-chain perspective, the combination of elevated exchange inflows and distribution from larger cohorts suggests that the market is entering a more fragile phase,” an analyst highlighted.
General, Bitcoin is exhibiting a number of bear market alerts throughout technical, historic, and on-chain indicators. Nonetheless, whether or not it in the end follows historic draw back patterns or surprises the market with renewed energy stays unsure.
