Based on a report from Paradigm, an investor in Polymarket competitor Kalshi, a number of necessary information suppliers had been miscounting Polymarket quantity, resulting in quantity values double what the quantity really was.
The report, which got here from Paradigm’s analysis accomplice, Storm Slivkoff, detailed what number of information suppliers had been counting on counting the variety of “OrderFilled” occasions that had been emitted from the Polymarket contract.
Nonetheless, when a commerce happens on Polymarket, there are literally two “OrderFilled” occasions, one for the marker and one for the taker.
This information downside isn’t associated to any wash buying and selling that happens on Polymarket however is just a results of failing to appropriately account for the way the sensible contract emits these occasions.
Examples of knowledge suppliers that had been over-counting the info included within the Paradigm report are DefiLlama, Allium, and Blockworks, all of whom are apparently working to appropriate this downside.
Apparently, Polymarket claims that this downside didn’t have an effect on the info by itself web site, with X consumer “primo_data,” who’s affiliated with Polymarket, noting that it “shows notional taker volume” in the identical method that Kalshi does and additional noting that different dashboards had adopted this technique.
This isn’t how prediction markets report quantity, together with your portfolio firm Kalshi.
To be clear:
1. Our website doesn’t double depend quantity. We present notional taker quantity (similar as Kalshi).
2. The first dashboards that present each Polymarket & Kalshi present notional quantity… pic.twitter.com/9Bu0zm0DS0
— Primo Information (@primo_data) December 8, 2025
Prediction markets have develop into more and more necessary after the Commodity and Futures Buying and selling Fee made the choice beneath the Trump administration to successfully enable binary choices suppliers.
Donald Trump Jr., is an advisor to each Polymarket and Kalshi and is an investor in Polymarket by 1789 Capital, the enterprise capital agency the place he’s a accomplice.
