The S&P 500 index ticked up 0.3% yesterday, its eighth straight upward buying and selling session. It’s now lower than half a share level away from its report excessive, and futures have been pointing marginally up once more this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures have been much more optimistic, up 0.39% earlier than the open in New York. The VIX “fear” index (which measures volatility) has sunk 12.6% this month, indicating that buyers appear to have settled in for a peaceful, quiet, risk-on vacation season.
They’ve motive to be pleased. Washington is making ready a wave of incoming liquidity that’s more likely to generate recent demand for equities.
For example, the CME FedWatch index exhibits an 87% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ship an rate of interest lower subsequent week, delivering a brand new spherical of cheaper cash. Additional cuts are anticipated in 2026.
Moreover, Wall Avenue largely expects President Trump to announce that Kevin Hassett will exchange Fed chairman Jerome Powell in Could—and Hassett is extensively considered a dove who will lean in favor of additional price cuts.
Elsewhere, the Fed has begun a collection of “reserve management purchases,” a program through which the central financial institution will purchase short-term T-bills—a transfer that may add extra liquidity to markets usually.
Banks, brokers and buying and selling platforms are additionally lining as much as deal with ‘Trump Accounts,’ into which the U.S. authorities will deposit $1,000 for each youngster. The belief fund may be invested in low-cost inventory index trackers—a brand new supply of funding demand coming on-line within the again half of 2026.
So it’s no shock that 9 main funding banks polled by the Monetary Occasions anticipate shares to rise in 2026; the typical of their estimates is by 10%.
The Congressional Finances Workplace additionally estimates that the One Huge Stunning Invoice Act will add 0.9% to U.S. GDP subsequent yr largely as a result of it permits firms to instantly deduct capital expenditures from their taxes—spurring an enormous spherical of company spending.
With all that recent cash on the horizon, it’s clear why markets have shrugged off their worries about AI and Bitcoin. The one shock will probably be if the S&P fails to hit a brand new all-time excessive by the top of the yr.
Right here’s a snapshot of the markets forward of the opening bell in New York this morning:
- S&P 500 futures have been up 0.2% this morning. The final session closed up 0.3%.
- STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.3% in early buying and selling.
- The U.Ok.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.14% in early buying and selling.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.33%.
- China’s CSI 300 was up 0.34%.
- The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.19%.
- India’s NIFTY 50 is up 0.18%.
- Bitcoin was flat at $93K.
