Apple had a record-breaking 12 months. Now its exceptional story simply bought a brand new plotline that goes properly past revenue milestones, Providers momentum, or the surprising softness in iPhone Air gross sales.
The identical improve wave that helped Apple ship its strongest fiscal 12 months ever is now highly effective sufficient to push the corporate previous Samsung Electronics in world smartphone shipments in 2025, ending Samsung’s 14-year reign on the high of the trade, in response to Counterpoint Analysis.
It’s a feat Apple hasn’t pulled off since 2011. Counterpoint says this isn’t a one-year anomaly, both. The agency forecasts Apple holding the No. 1 spot all over 2029.
10 key milestones for Apple and Samsung
- 2007: Apple launches the primary iPhone, redefining the smartphone market.
- 2010: Samsung debuts the Galaxy S, starting the flagship rivalry with Apple.
- 2011: Samsung surpasses Apple in annual smartphone shipments, beginning a 14-year run at No. 1.
- 2014: Apple releases the iPhone 6/6 Plus, triggering one among its largest improve cycles ever.
- 2017: Apple introduces iPhone X and the $999 premium tier; Apple’s revenue dominance accelerates.
- 2019: Samsung launches the Galaxy Fold.
- 2020: Apple launches the 5G iPhone 12, which units off one other large substitute cycle.
- 2023: Samsung strengthens foldable dominance as Apple faces renewed strain in China.
- 2024: Apple stories document $112B in web revenue whilst iPhone Air demand falters.
- 2025: Counterpoint forecasts Apple will overtake Samsung in world shipments and keep within the pole place via 2029.
Sources: TheStreet and Samsung
Primarily based on the newest cargo and earnings projections, Apple is on a notable sizzling streak.
TheStreet
Apple takes high place for first time in additional than a decade
“Counterpoint forecasts that the brand’s shipments will reach a global share of 19.4% in 2025, making Apple the world’s No. 1 smartphone OEM for the first time since 2011,” the agency mentioned. “Samsung… will relinquish the top spot it has held for more than a decade.”
Apple edged out Samsung’s forecasted 18.7%. The analysis agency pegs iPhone shipments to develop 10% subsequent 12 months, in contrast with 4.6% progress for Samsung.
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That distinction widens a development line that’s been creeping in Apple’s favor for years, whilst Samsung maintained a quantity benefit with a sprawling lineup that provided the whole lot from ultra-budget to ultra-premium gadgets.
For Apple, which already instructions the overwhelming majority of smartphone earnings, turning into the highest shipper is one thing of a strategic turning level — an indication that its tightly built-in {hardware} ecosystem can beat scale at its personal sport.
Apple closed FY 2025 with document income
Apple indicated in its October 30, 2025, earnings name that it closed its fiscal 12 months with $112 billion in web revenue, its highest ever. It additionally guided for 10% to 12% income progress within the present quarter, as margins stay close to historic highs.
But Apple additionally revealed layoffs, a rarity for the corporate, and admitted that the ultra-thin iPhone Air underperformed inside expectations, with manufacturing reportedly trimmed after demand landed properly under Apple’s most optimistic fashions.
What regarded like a doable weak spot now seems much less like a structural concern and extra like a product-mix concern — one which’s being fully eclipsed by the power of the broader iPhone 17 cycle.
iPhone 17 is on fireplace
Counterpoint tracked double-digit progress for the iPhone 17 throughout each the U.S. and China throughout October, with China specifically displaying stronger-than-expected early demand. Analysts say that is the strongest begin to an iPhone cycle since earlier than the Covid pandemic.
“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point, Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said.
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“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” Yang mentioned.
Timing can be an accelerant.
Mixed, these forces create exactly the demand surge Apple wanted to leapfrog Samsung.
How rising markets might have an effect on the Apple iPhone 17e
Counterpoint’s multiyear forecast hinges on greater than the 2025 cycle. The agency expects Apple to increase its lead via the last decade partially due to the upcoming iPhone 17e, slated for the primary half of 2026.
The “e” mannequin, positioned within the lower-premium tier, provides Apple a extra price-accessible gadget for rising markets — markets which are anticipated to develop sooner than the worldwide smartphone market as an entire.
Apple has made repeated, if typically halting, makes an attempt to broaden its viewers in India (as The Indian Specific signifies), Southeast Asia (as reported by Apple World At the moment), and components of Latin America (in response to Aztec Reviews).
A tool that undercuts the flagship whereas retaining the core iOS expertise might be the lacking piece.
Apple AI delays haven’t affected momentum but
The delayed overhaul of Siri and Apple’s slower generative AI rollout don’t seem like hurting gross sales.
Counterpoint says the AI timeline — with deeper Siri upgrades and extra Apple Intelligence options scheduled for 2026 — is an upside catalyst quite than a drag. Apple can be reportedly transferring nearer to bringing its Apple Intelligence suite to China, a step that might meaningfully increase competitiveness in opposition to native rivals.
For now, the ecosystem impact is doing the heavy lifting: Clients who switched to iPhone within the final 5 years are proving exceptionally sticky, and Apple’s providers engine continues to deepen that lock-in.
Apple earns extra earnings whereas Samsung ships extra items
For greater than a decade, the smartphone trade has been outlined by an odd break up. Apple captured the revenue crown, whereas Samsung sat on the cargo throne.
Counterpoint now expects 2025 to be the 12 months these two strains converge — with Apple main each.
Following the report, Apple shares have been up about 0.9% in noon buying and selling on Nov. 26, the day earlier than Thanksgiving, in response to Yahoo Finance. Traders gave the impression to be digesting the likelihood that the iPhone story, removed from maturing, could also be coming into a brand new section.
Apple could have simply had its finest 12 months ever. But when Counterpoint is true, the height is the start of Apple’s most dominant stretch but.
Apple vs. Samsung: Present us the cash
- Apple (fiscal 2024): Whole income reached ~$391 billion.
Supply: Yahoo Finance - Apple (fiscal 2024): Internet revenue margin exceeded ~24%, reflecting sturdy high-margin enterprise throughout gadgets and providers.
Supply: Yahoo Finance - Samsung Electronics (2023): Consolidated income was ~ $220-225 billion and working revenue round $4.9 billion — displaying Samsung stays a big, diversified {hardware}/semiconductor large.
Supply: Samsung earnings report - Samsung Electronics (2024): Full-year consolidated income totaled $219 billion, with working revenue of KRW 32.7 trillion.
Supply: Samsung earnings report - Apple (2025 Q3): Whole firm income reportedly reached $102.5 billion, reflecting ongoing power in iPhone, providers, and different segments.
Supply: Apple
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