“I think it’s maybe understatement of the century to say that global trade is facing the greatest disruption in 80 years.” It’s a big assertion from anybody, not to mention Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director-general of the World Commerce Group. She warned on the Fortune World Discussion board in Riyadh that the worldwide economic system is in its choppiest waters because the Thirties, no small feat contemplating that decade noticed the Nice Despair and the outbreak of the Second World Warfare — and the Nice Recession of 2008 remains to be in dwelling reminiscence.
Nonetheless, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, a Nigerian economist who’s the primary lady and the primary African to steer the World Commerce Group as director-general, insisted that what’s taking place isn’t a replay of that darkish decade within the early twentieth century. “It is functioning,” Dr. Okonjo-Iweala mentioned of commerce, however it’s not functioning fairly in the way in which it used to earlier than. This is because of President Donald Trump enacting a number of sudden modifications to world commerce that replicate what he considers flaws within the system. “I think that a lot of the criticisms made by the U.S. of the system are valid,” the previous Nigerian minister mentioned, urging the viewers to make use of this chance for wider reform.
Talking in a wide-ranging dialogue on the way forward for the worldwide buying and selling system with Fortune‘s Ellie Austin at the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala argued that despite rising tariffs, broken supply chains, and the resurgence of economic nationalism, the WTO-led framework has shown surprising resilience. “Before the current wave of tariff disputes, roughly 80% of global trade operated under WTO’s most-favored-nation guidelines,” she mentioned, noting that this has dropped to about 72 %, “but the important thing is that the system is still holding.”
Stunned and happy with resilience
Dr. Okonjo-Iweala acknowledged that the dimensions of disruption rivals the protectionist spiral of the interwar years, but emphasised that key variations have prevented historical past from repeating itself. “What we see now is the fact that we’ve talked to members to avoid their tit-for-tat,” she mentioned, referring to an escalating cycle of protectionism and tariff partitions going up in every single place between economies. Most WTO members haven’t executed that, she added. “I’m very proud of them … they are all still trading with themselves, mostly on WTO rules.”
Whereas the US — which accounts for almost 30% of world imports — has challenged current commerce guidelines and bypassed dispute settlement mechanisms, the director-general pressured that the WTO framework stays indispensable. The U.S. could also be working in another way, she mentioned, however 87 % of world commerce continues to be ruled by WTO disciplines. “We were surprised and pleased at the resilience of the system.”
The director-general outlined an bold reform agenda to revive confidence in international governance. Central to her proposal is modernizing the WTO’s consensus decision-making course of, which requires unanimity amongst all 166 members. Unanimity sounds noble, she mentioned, “but sometimes you really get stuck.” She mentioned the reply is easy however troublesome: “The members have to work at it. Okay? It’s up to them to come up with the answers.”
Larger transparency in subsidies and commerce reporting, she added, will probably be important. “If you don’t have a level playing field, and practices are not seen to be fair, that really does undermine the system,” she mentioned.
A brand new plumbing system?
The director-general in contrast the WTO’s position to “the plumbing” of the worldwide economic system — “you don’t think of it until the pipe breaks.” From mental property protections to valuation guidelines for cross-border items, she mentioned these often-overlooked requirements maintain trillions of {dollars} in commerce annually.
She additionally highlighted how deeply many smaller economies depend on rules-based commerce: Out of 166 members, 142 have trade-to-GDP ratios above 50%, and so they “really depend on trade and need the rules. You can’t make an agreement with every single country, so you need multilateral rules and a level and a system that provides stability and predictability.”
Turning to the long run, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala mentioned the following wave of reforms should handle the fast growth of digital and AI-driven commerce. Roughly 40% of world commerce previously 12 months concerned AI-related items corresponding to semiconductors, telecoms, and superior computing. Digitally delivered providers alone are price almost $5 trillion, rising at 8% yearly — twice as quick because the commerce in items.
Synthetic intelligence, she continued, has the potential to dramatically scale back commerce prices whereas shifting the character of products and providers exchanged. That transformation calls for new plumbing, or new international guidelines. To that finish, the WTO has convened a gaggle of almost 70 members to barter a landmark e‑commerce settlement — the primary of its type — with a primary part anticipated by the March 2026 ministerial convention.
Regardless of uncertainty, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala framed the present disaster as a pivotal alternative for renewal. “In every crisis, there’s always opportunity,” she mentioned, seeming to indicate that the world is ripe for brand spanking new pipes beneath the floor. So it’s a reduction that the Thirties aren’t being repeated, one thing like tear-down building, however rewiring the plumbing of the world economic system might take a while — and be very costly.
