NVIDIA dominates the AI chip market. However dominance doesn’t at all times imply the very best risk-reward. With institutional cash movement turning cautious, tariff headwinds on Taiwan-made chips, and a valuation demanding 60%+ sustained progress — good cash is different AI shares.
Listed below are three AI shares that would provide a sharper setup, each technical and elementary, heading into March 2026. And be careful for a excessive threat, honorary choose, proper on the finish.
How is Nvidia (NVDA) Trying?
NVIDIA, the most important holding within the Expertise sector (XLK) at 15.79% weightage at press time, experiences its This fall FY2026 earnings on February 25, post-market shut.
Wall Avenue expects excessive numbers, however current historical past reveals that hasn’t been sufficient. After Q3’s $57 billion beat, the inventory barely moved and has traded sideways since.
NVIDIA EARNINGS: MARKET ON EDGE OVER AI OUTLOOK
Nvidia experiences earnings at a pivotal second, with buyers questioning the sturdiness of the AI-driven inventory rally.
Robust outcomes are anticipated, however markets stay unsure as issues develop over heavy AI spending and disruption… pic.twitter.com/kqgGtdKfUJ
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 25, 2026
Regardless of being up over 50% year-on-year, NVIDIA’s chart has been buying and selling inside a descending channel since late October. At press time, the worth seems to be breaking out of this channel — however the breakout wants affirmation.
A sustained maintain above $195, adopted by a transfer by way of $203 and $212, would flip the construction bullish.
Nevertheless, if the breakout fails, the $190 and $179 zones have acted as near-term assist, with deeper draw back threat under that.
The Chaikin Cash Move (CMF) — which tracks whether or not institutional cash is flowing into or out of a inventory — stays a priority.
The Chaikin Cash Move (CMF) indicator has remained under the zero line since mid-January, indicating internet cash continues to go away regardless of the worth restoration.
If CMF fails to flip constructive (like mid-January), the worth restoration loses its institutional backing, and the descending channel may reassert itself.
NVIDIA Worth Evaluation: TradingView
On the elemental facet, NVIDIA manufactures 100% of its GPUs by way of TSMC in Taiwan. This absolutely exposes it to Part 232 semiconductor import tariffs, elevating chip prices.
China’s income has collapsed below US export restrictions, chopping off the world’s second-largest AI market.
And at 35x EV/EBITDA (a measure of how costly a inventory is relative to its earnings energy), NVIDIA wants 60%+ sustained progress simply to justify its present worth. With these dangers in play, three different AI shares might provide a sharper setup into March.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
TSMC (TSM), the primary inventory on the record, is up almost 100% year-on-year. That outpaces even NVIDIA’s 50% achieve and the reason being simple. TSMC manufactures over 90% of the world’s most superior chips.
Each NVIDIA GPU, Broadcom ASIC, and AMD processor runs on TSMC fabrication. It doesn’t matter who wins the AI chip race. TSMC builds for all of them.
$TSM has a monopoly on making essentially the most superior AI chips by controlling over 90% of manufacturing at 3nm, 5nm & 7nm.
That demand reveals up in its HPC section throughout:
• AI accelerators like $NVDA Blackwell & $GOOGL TPUs
• Information heart CPUs like $AMD EPYC & $AMZN AWS Graviton
•… pic.twitter.com/qI7artH84C
— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) February 14, 2026
Right here’s what most buyers miss. TSMC controls NVIDIA’s price construction. It raised costs 10-20% on superior chips lately. Clients paid with out hesitation as no various exists.
Intel is generations behind, and Samsung has yield issues. When TSMC raises costs, its margins increase. When NVIDIA pays these costs, its margins shrink.
And in contrast to NVIDIA, TSMC doesn’t pay import tariffs. Tariffs hit the importer, not the exporter. TSMC exports. NVIDIA imports. Plus, TSMC’s new Arizona fabs produce US-made chips — utterly tariff-free.
At 18x EV/EBITDA — a measure of worth relative to core earnings — TSMC prices almost half of NVIDIA’s 35x. Final quarter, 1,945 establishments opened new positions, price $49 billion, one of many highest inflows amongst AI shares.
On the chart, TSM trades inside an ascending channel since mid-December. A breakout, which is sort of there, may goal $470 — over 20% upside, beginning in March itself.
CMF reads 0.21, above zero, confirming regular institutional influx. A push previous 0.28 would strengthen the breakout sign.
On the draw back, $386 is crucial assist. A correction, possible triggered by the Taiwan-specific geopolitical tensions, may check $362 or $346. Solely a sustained break under $346 turns the construction impartial.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
This AI inventory would possibly throw a shock. On the each day chart, Alphabet seems to be weak. It’s largely flat year-to-date. Down 7% over the previous month. The worth is forming a head and shoulders sample with a downward sloping neckline. However right here’s the fascinating half.
Since hitting the precise shoulder on February 23, the worth has tried to rebound. It now sits close to the precise shoulder stage. A break above $319 would weaken the bearish sample. It turns the construction impartial.
Above $349, the short-term bearish thesis will get utterly invalidated.
The CMF tells a distinct story than the worth. Whereas NVIDIA’s CMF stays adverse — displaying institutional cash leaving — Alphabet’s CMF has turned constructive at 0.09.
Much like TSM, cash is flowing in regardless of the weak worth motion. A sustained transfer above 0.19 would affirm institutional accumulation is carrying into Q1 2026.
Even within the final quarter, 520 establishments opened new positions averaging $74 million every.
The elemental edge is exclusive. Google doesn’t simply use AI — it sells cheaper AI infrastructure to NVIDIA’s personal clients. Its Ironwood TPUs price roughly $15,000. NVIDIA’s GPUs price $30,000-$40,000.
TPU v7 prices round $15K for Google.
Capital prices for Google are 1/third on TPUs in comparison with Nvidia {hardware}.
Interconnect bandwidth 600 GB/s (ICI), 1000W, 4.6 PFLOPS fp8, 192GB HBM3E.
Google can squeeze out larger MFU on TPUs as a result of JAX/XLA in comparison with Nvidia on GPUs.
(U will not… https://t.co/79Sckgy287
— Zephyr (@zephyr_z9) November 26, 2025
Google Cloud grew 48% final quarter. Working margin jumped from 17.5% to 30.1% in a single 12 months.
$GOOG Alphabet This fall FY25:
• Income +18% Y/Y to $113.8B ($2.3B beat).
• Working margin 32% (-1pp Y/Y).
• EPS $2.82 ($0.18 beat).
☁️ Google Cloud:
• Income +48% Y/Y to $17.7B.
• Working margin 30% (+13pp Y/Y).
▶️ YouTube advertisements +9% to $11.4B. pic.twitter.com/sZ1VUMGzAd
— App Financial system Insights (@EconomyApp) February 4, 2026
And as a software program and providers firm, Alphabet has zero tariff publicity — not like NVIDIA’s 100%.
Tariffs usually don’t apply to software program providers exports within the conventional sense, as they’re usually imposed on bodily items crossing borders, not intangible providers or digital merchandise like software program transmitted electronically.
Beneath present worldwide commerce…
— Navroop Singh (@TheNavroopSingh) April 2, 2025
If the worth breaks under $286, the bearish sample confirms. That might push costs towards $276 and decrease ranges — possible triggered by broader tech promoting or disappointing Cloud progress steerage.
However the CMF divergence and institutional flows recommend good cash is positioning for a reversal, not a breakdown.
Final on the record however not the least. This AI inventory is up 64% year-on-year however flat over the past seven days.
An inverse head and shoulders sample is forming now. It is a traditional reversal construction, which might change the short-term weak spot. The AVGO worth is now transferring towards the neckline at $350.
A breakout above that stage opens the trail for a close to 20% transfer — probably pushing AVGO near $420. That breakout window aligns with early March, proper round its Q1 FY2026 earnings on March 4. A beat-and-raise on March 4 may very well be the set off that cracks the neckline of the bullish sample.
Right here’s what makes Broadcom a direct NVIDIA challenger. AI is shifting from the coaching section to inference — working fashions at scale for tens of millions of customers. NVIDIA GPUs dominate coaching. However for inference, customized ASICs are 3-5x extra energy-efficient and value means much less.
Broadcom designs these ASICs for Google, Meta, ByteDance, and now OpenAI. As inference scales, Broadcom is positioned for the larger section forward, courtesy of this AI shift.
AI ASIC and Networking Chips
Broadcom’s dominance within the AI ASIC market is putting, with over 100 chip designs accomplished throughout 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm course of nodes—firmly securing its No.1 place with over 80% market share. Within the high-performance switching and routing chip… pic.twitter.com/8IS31KnCbN
— Jukan (@jukan05) June 2, 2025
The Cash Move Index (MFI) — which measures shopping for and promoting strain utilizing each worth and quantity — confirms accumulation on dips.
Since February 10, whereas costs trended decrease, MFI has trended larger. And that’s a bullish divergence. MFI at present sits round 67, nonetheless under the overheated 80 threshold. Room to run. This implies, presumably retail is choosing up AVGO shares at a clip.
On the draw back, $314 is crucial. A break under would weaken the bullish setup. Beneath $295, the inverse head and shoulders invalidates totally. A broader AI spending slowdown or weaker-than-expected March 4 steerage may set off that state of affairs.
Honorable Point out: Palantir Applied sciences (PLTR) — The Dangerous Wager
Palantir didn’t make the primary record of AI shares, courtesy of the excessive valuation threat.
$PLTR – CITRON’S LEFT: PALANTIR ‘BEYOND OVERVALUED’
Citron Analysis’s Andrew Left is brief Palantir calls the brief ‘apparent’ likes the corporate and Alex Karp, however thinks it’s overpriced.
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 13, 2025
However the chart is flashing reversal alerts price watching. Between February 5 and 24, the worth made a decrease low, but the relative energy index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made the next low. That’s a traditional bullish divergence.
The CMF confirms it. Between February 9 and 25, costs trended down whereas CMF trended up. Two separate indicators pointing towards bullishness.
If $126 holds as a base, the primary goal is $143. Past that, $170 — a powerful resistance from early January — turns into the important thing stage.
Essentially, Palantir is among the few AI corporations turning AI into actual income. Final quarter delivered $1.41 billion — up 70% year-on-year. It carries zero debt, $4 billion in money, and just like the three most important picks, zero tariff publicity. Pure software program.
Palantir experiences This fall 2025 income progress of 70% Y/Y, rule of 40 rating of 127%; points FY 2026 income steerage of 61% Y/Y progress and U.S. business income steerage of 115% Y/Y progress, crushing consensus estimates.
This fall U.S. business income grew 137% y/y and adjusted working… pic.twitter.com/b7a4BVTkRo
— Palantir (@PalantirTech) February 2, 2026
Right here’s the catch. PLTR trades at over 200x P/E — that means buyers are paying $200 for each $1 the corporate earns. That’s a price ticket that assumes the whole lot goes completely.
Any stumble in progress, and the inventory may fall onerous. Furthermore, dropping $126 invalidates all the setup.
